38645 leans Democratic by roughly 18 points: about 59% of voters vote Democratic and 41% Republican.
About 70% of adults in 38645 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 38645, ~41% vote Democratic, ~29% Republican, and ~30% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 38645 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 38645 leans more Democratic than 2 of 8 neighbors.
38645 runs about 42 points more Democratic than Mississippi as a whole. Mississippi leans Republican overall, while 38645 is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 38645. The northeast side runs the most Democratic (D+68) and the southwest side runs the most Republican (Even), a spread of about 69 points.
Why 38645 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 38645, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural, majority-Black areas of the Southern Black Belt vote Democratic, against the usual rural pattern. About 60% of residents in 38645 are Black or African American, about 23 points above the Mississippi average of 36%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 36% of adults in 38645 have never been married, above 82% of zip codes. 38645 runs against the grain of Mississippi, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; 38645, MS sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 38645 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 38645 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 7%, about 53 points below the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Mississippi Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.