40209 leans Democratic by roughly 22 points: about 61% of voters vote Democratic and 39% Republican.
About 40% of adults in 40209 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 40209, ~24% vote Democratic, ~16% Republican, and ~60% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 40209 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 40209 leans more Democratic than 30 of 44 neighbors.
40209 runs about 53 points more Democratic than Kentucky as a whole. Kentucky leans Republican overall, while 40209 is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 40209. The west side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+26) and the south side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+9), a spread of about 17 points.
Why 40209 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 40209, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. More than 99% of residents in 40209 live in densely developed areas, about 64 points above the U.S. average of 36%. 40209 runs against the grain of Kentucky, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; 40209, KY sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in 40209 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 40209 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 36%, about 19 points below the Kentucky average of 54%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 57% of households in 40209 rent, about 32 points above the U.S. average of 25%. High-crime urban areas turn out at lower rates, and 40209 sits in the top 15% on a violent-crime measure. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Kentucky State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.