78154 leans slightly Republican by roughly 8 points: about 46% of voters vote Democratic and 54% Republican.
About 67% of adults in 78154 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 78154, ~31% vote Democratic, ~36% Republican, and ~33% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 78154 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 78154 leans more Republican than 24 of 33 neighbors.
78154 runs about 5 points more Democratic than Texas as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 78154. The southeast side runs the most Democratic (Even) and the north side runs the most Republican (R+21), a spread of about 23 points.
Why 78154 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 78154, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
78154 votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 78%, far above the Texas average of 35%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 74% of households in 78154 are family households, above 75% of zip codes.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; 78154, TX sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 78154 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 78154 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.