20164 leans Democratic by roughly 24 points: about 62% of voters vote Democratic and 38% Republican.
About 62% of adults in 20164 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 20164, ~38% vote Democratic, ~24% Republican, and ~38% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 20164 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 20164 leans more Democratic than 15 of 53 neighbors.
20164 runs about 17 points more Democratic than Virginia as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 20164. The east side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+27) and the southeast side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+10), a spread of about 17 points.
Why 20164 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 20164, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 95% of residents in 20164 live in densely developed areas, about 59 points above the U.S. average of 36%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and 20164 sits in the top quarter (about 38%, above 78% of zip codes). A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 37% of adults in 20164 have never been married, above 83% of zip codes.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; 20164, VA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 20164 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 20164 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout, and about 7% of homes in 20164 have more than one occupant per room, above 91% of zip codes. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 80% of adults in 20164 have completed high school, below 91% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.