85281 leans heavily Democratic by roughly 38 points: about 69% of voters vote Democratic and 31% Republican.
About 41% of adults in 85281 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 85281, ~28% vote Democratic, ~13% Republican, and ~59% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 85281 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 85281 leans more Democratic than 50 of 57 neighbors.
85281 runs about 43 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole. Arizona leans Republican overall, while 85281 is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 85281. The south side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+49) and the northeast side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+21), a spread of about 28 points.
Why 85281 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 85281, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 97% of residents in 85281 live in densely developed areas, about 61 points above the U.S. average of 36%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and 85281 sits in the top quarter (about 52%, above 90% of zip codes). 85281 runs against the grain of Arizona, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; 85281, AZ sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in 85281 looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 78% of households in 85281 rent, about 53 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Limited routine healthcare access lines up with lower turnout, and 85281 sits in the bottom quarter on routine-care measures. High-crime urban areas turn out at lower rates, and 85281 sits in the top 15% on a violent-crime measure. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.