85257 leans slightly Democratic by roughly 10 points: about 55% of voters vote Democratic and 45% Republican.
About 65% of adults in 85257 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 85257, ~36% vote Democratic, ~29% Republican, and ~35% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 85257 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 85257 leans more Democratic than 29 of 59 neighbors.
85257 runs about 16 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole. Arizona leans Republican overall, while 85257 is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 85257. The south side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+19) and the northeast side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+4), a spread of about 15 points.
Why 85257 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 85257, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 98% of residents in 85257 live in densely developed areas, about 62 points above the U.S. average of 36%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and 85257 sits in the top quarter (about 49%, above 88% of zip codes). A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 46% of adults in 85257 have never been married, above 93% of zip codes.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; 85257, AZ sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 85257 looks the way it does
Turnout in 85257 sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.