85282 leans Democratic by roughly 24 points: about 62% of voters vote Democratic and 38% Republican.
About 58% of adults in 85282 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 85282, ~36% vote Democratic, ~22% Republican, and ~42% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 85282 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 85282 leans more Democratic than 35 of 54 neighbors.
85282 runs about 30 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole. Arizona leans Republican overall, while 85282 is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 85282. The northwest side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+32) and the southeast side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+19), a spread of about 13 points.
Why 85282 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 85282, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. More than 99% of residents in 85282 live in densely developed areas, about 64 points above the U.S. average of 36%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and 85282 sits in the top quarter (about 45%, above 85% of zip codes). A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 48% of adults in 85282 have never been married, above 94% of zip codes.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; 85282, AZ sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in 85282 looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 50% of households in 85282 rent, about 25 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout, and about 4% of homes in 85282 have more than one occupant per room, above 83% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.