85034 leans heavily Democratic by roughly 34 points: about 67% of voters vote Democratic and 33% Republican.
About 42% of adults in 85034 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 85034, ~28% vote Democratic, ~14% Republican, and ~58% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 85034 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 85034 leans more Democratic than 54 of 64 neighbors.
85034 runs about 39 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole. Arizona leans Republican overall, while 85034 is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 85034. The east side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+38) and the southeast side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+10), a spread of about 28 points.
Why 85034 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 85034, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. More than 99% of residents in 85034 live in densely developed areas, about 63 points above the U.S. average of 36%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 57% of adults in 85034 have never been married, above 97% of zip codes. 85034 runs against the grain of Arizona, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; 85034, AZ sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in 85034 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 85034 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 48%, about 6 points below the Arizona average of 54%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 81% of households in 85034 rent, compared to around 56% in nearby zip codes. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 29% of adults in 85034 report food insecurity, above 93% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.