86052 leans slightly Republican by roughly 12 points: about 44% of voters vote Democratic and 56% Republican.
About 51% of adults in 86052 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 86052, ~22% vote Democratic, ~29% Republican, and ~49% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 86052 compares
86052 runs about 6 points more Republican than Arizona as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 86052. The south side runs the most Democratic (Even) and the east side runs the most Republican (R+33), a spread of about 33 points.
Why 86052 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 86052, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 2% of residents in 86052 live in densely developed areas, about 37 points below the Arizona average of 39%.
Population density, never-married share, and Republican lean
Places that combine low population density and a never-married-heavy adult population tend to lean Republican, as 86052, AZ does.
Why turnout in 86052 looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 89% of households in 86052 rent, about 64 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.