86435 leans Republican by roughly 30 points: about 35% of voters vote Democratic and 65% Republican.
About 46% of adults in 86435 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 86435, ~16% vote Democratic, ~30% Republican, and ~54% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 86435 compares
86435 runs about 24 points more Republican than Arizona as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 86435. The northeast side runs the most Democratic (Even) and the west side runs the most Republican (R+31), a spread of about 31 points.
Why 86435 leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in 86435. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Paved land cover and Republican lean
Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; 86435, AZ sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in 86435 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 86435 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout, and about 7% of homes in 86435 have more than one occupant per room, above 93% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.