86023 leans Republican by roughly 22 points: about 39% of voters vote Democratic and 61% Republican.
About 38% of adults in 86023 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 86023, ~15% vote Democratic, ~23% Republican, and ~62% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 86023 compares
86023 runs about 17 points more Republican than Arizona as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 86023. The south side is the most Republican-leaning (R+31) and the northeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+8), a spread of about 23 points.
Why 86023 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 86023, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 4% of residents in 86023 live in densely developed areas, about 35 points below the Arizona average of 39%.
Paved land cover and Republican lean
Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; 86023, AZ sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in 86023 looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 70% of households in 86023 rent, about 45 points above the U.S. average of 25%. High-crime urban areas turn out at lower rates, and 86023 sits in the top 15% on a violent-crime measure. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.