86431 leans heavily Republican by roughly 44 points: about 28% of voters vote Democratic and 72% Republican.
About 70% of adults in 86431 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 86431, ~20% vote Democratic, ~50% Republican, and ~30% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 86431 compares
86431 sits in a sparsely populated area with few comparable zip codes nearby.
86431 runs about 37 points more Republican than Arizona as a whole.
Why 86431 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 86431, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. Fewer than 1% of residents in 86431 live in densely developed areas, about 38 points below the Arizona average of 39%.
Paved land cover and Republican lean
Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; 86431, AZ sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in 86431 looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. More than 99% of households in 86431 own their home, about 27 points above the Arizona average of 73%. Limited routine healthcare access lines up with lower turnout, and 86431 sits in the bottom quarter on routine-care measures. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.