86409 leans heavily Republican by roughly 36 points: about 32% of voters vote Democratic and 68% Republican.
About 63% of adults in 86409 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 86409, ~20% vote Democratic, ~43% Republican, and ~37% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 86409 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 86409 is the least Republican-leaning.
86409 runs about 30 points more Republican than Arizona as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 86409. The northeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+48) and the south side is the least Republican-leaning (R+25), a spread of about 23 points.
Why 86409 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 86409, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
86409 votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 70%, far above the Arizona average of 39%). Here an older population outweighs the Democratic lean that density usually predicts.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; 86409, AZ sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in 86409 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 86409 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.