86413 leans heavily Republican by roughly 50 points: about 25% of voters vote Democratic and 75% Republican.
About 53% of adults in 86413 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 86413, ~13% vote Democratic, ~40% Republican, and ~47% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 86413 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 86413 is the most Republican-leaning.
86413 runs about 44 points more Republican than Arizona as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 86413. The east side is the most Republican-leaning (R+57) and the southeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+37), a spread of about 20 points.
Why 86413 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 86413, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with low college attainment vote Republican. About 6% of adults in 86413 hold a bachelor's degree, about 20 points below the Arizona average of 25%.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; 86413, AZ sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in 86413 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 86413 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 48%, about 7 points below the Arizona average of 54%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 21% of adults in 86413 report food insecurity, above 81% of zip codes. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 76% of adults in 86413 have completed high school, below 95% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.