86433 leans heavily Republican by roughly 34 points: about 33% of voters vote Democratic and 67% Republican.
About 26% of adults in 86433 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 86433, ~9% vote Democratic, ~17% Republican, and ~74% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 86433 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 86433 leans more Republican than 1 of 5 neighbors.
86433 runs about 28 points more Republican than Arizona as a whole.
Why 86433 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 86433, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. Fewer than 1% of residents in 86433 live in densely developed areas, about 38 points below the Arizona average of 39%. Low college attainment predicts Republican voting, and 86433 sits in the bottom quarter (about 6%, below 98% of zip codes).
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; 86433, AZ sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in 86433 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 86433 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 46%, about 8 points below the Arizona average of 54%. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 78% of adults in 86433 have completed high school, below 93% of zip codes. High-crime urban areas turn out at lower rates, and 86433 sits in the top 15% on a violent-crime measure. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.