86442 leans Republican by roughly 26 points: about 37% of voters vote Democratic and 63% Republican.
About 62% of adults in 86442 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 86442, ~23% vote Democratic, ~39% Republican, and ~38% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 86442 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 86442 leans more Republican than 1 of 5 neighbors.
86442 runs about 21 points more Republican than Arizona as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 86442. The southeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+34) and the southwest side is the least Republican-leaning (R+16), a spread of about 18 points.
Why 86442 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 86442, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
86442 votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 71%, far above the Arizona average of 39%). Here an older population outweighs the Democratic lean that density usually predicts. Low college attainment predicts Republican voting, and 86442 sits in the bottom quarter (about 14%, below 84% of zip codes).
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; 86442, AZ sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in 86442 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 86442 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 48%, about 6 points below the Arizona average of 54%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.