86503 is a Democratic stronghold. About 79% of voters here vote Democratic and 21% Republican.
About 55% of adults in 86503 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 86503, ~43% vote Democratic, ~12% Republican, and ~45% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 86503 compares
86503 runs about 64 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole. Arizona leans Republican overall, while 86503 is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 86503. The northwest side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+65) and the southwest side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+49), a spread of about 16 points.
Why 86503 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 86503, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
86503 votes against the grain of Arizona. Arizona leans Republican overall, while 86503 runs about 64 points more Democratic. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 49% of adults in 86503 have never been married, above 95% of zip codes.
Food insecurity and voter turnout
Places with high food insecurity tend to turn out at a lower rate; 86503, AZ sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Food insecurity does not directly drive turnout; it reflects economic hardship, which lines up with lower voting.
Why turnout in 86503 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 86503 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 39%, about 15 points below the Arizona average of 54%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 44% of adults in 86503 report food insecurity, in the top fraction of zip codes. High-crime urban areas turn out at lower rates, and 86503 sits in the top 15% on a violent-crime measure. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.