96860 leans Democratic by roughly 20 points: about 60% of voters vote Democratic and 40% Republican.
About 21% of adults in 96860 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 96860, ~13% vote Democratic, ~9% Republican, and ~78% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 96860 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 96860 leans more Democratic than 13 of 24 neighbors.
Politically, 96860 sits close to the rest of Hawaii.
Why 96860 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 96860, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many never-married adults vote Democratic. About 80% of adults in 96860 have never been married, far above similar-sized zip codes (around 23%).
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with low colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a lower rate; 96860, HI sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in 96860 looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 97% of households in 96860 rent, about 72 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Strong routine healthcare access lines up with higher turnout, and 96860 sits in the top quarter on routine-care measures. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Hawaii Office of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Some land-use inputs for Hawaii, including walkability and the environmental-justice index, are estimated rather than measured, so the figures here carry added uncertainty. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.