96853 is a true toss-up. About 49% of voters here vote Democratic and 51% Republican.
About 34% of adults in 96853 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 96853, ~17% vote Democratic, ~17% Republican, and ~66% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 96853 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 96853 sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 23 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 1 leaning the other way.
96853 runs about 25 points more Republican than Hawaii as a whole. Hawaii leans Democratic overall, while 96853 sits closer to the political middle.
Why 96853 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 96853, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
96853 votes against the grain of Hawaii. Hawaii leans Democratic overall, while 96853 runs about 25 points more Republican.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; 96853, HI sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in 96853 looks the way it does
Areas with low high-school completion turn out at lower rates. More than 99% of adults in 96853 have completed high school, about 10 points above the U.S. average of 90%. High-crime urban areas turn out at lower rates, and 96853 sits in the top 15% on a violent-crime measure. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Hawaii Office of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Some land-use inputs for Hawaii, including walkability and the environmental-justice index, are estimated rather than measured, so the figures here carry added uncertainty. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.