96819 leans slightly Democratic by roughly 10 points: about 55% of voters vote Democratic and 45% Republican.
About 41% of adults in 96819 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 96819, ~22% vote Democratic, ~18% Republican, and ~60% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 96819 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 96819 leans more Democratic than 6 of 25 neighbors.
96819 runs about 13 points more Republican than Hawaii as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 96819. The north side runs the most Democratic (D+14) and the west side runs the most Republican (R+9), a spread of about 22 points.
Why 96819 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 96819, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many never-married adults vote Democratic. About 42% of adults in 96819 have never been married, about 12 points above the U.S. average of 29%.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; 96819, HI sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 96819 looks the way it does
Areas with high food insecurity turn out at lower rates. About 25% of adults in 96819 report food insecurity, about 9 points above the U.S. average of 16%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 47% of households in 96819 rent, about 22 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Hawaii Office of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Some land-use inputs for Hawaii, including walkability and the environmental-justice index, are estimated rather than measured, so the figures here carry added uncertainty. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.