98438 leans slightly Republican by roughly 14 points: about 43% of voters vote Democratic and 57% Republican.
About 32% of adults in 98438 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 98438, ~14% vote Democratic, ~18% Republican, and ~68% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 98438 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 98438 leans more Republican than 42 of 46 neighbors.
98438 runs about 32 points more Republican than Washington as a whole. Washington leans Democratic overall, while 98438 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why 98438 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 98438, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many family households vote Republican. About 84% of households in 98438 are family households, about 17 points above the U.S. average of 67%. Dense places usually vote Democratic, but 98438 runs against that pattern. 98438 runs against the grain of Washington, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; 98438, WA sits below the national average on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in 98438 looks the way it does
Renters vote less often than owners. About 97% of households in 98438 rent, about 72 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and more than 99% of adults in 98438 have completed high school, above 98% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Washington Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.