Ainaloa is a true toss-up. About 52% of voters here vote Democratic and 48% Republican.
About 55% of adults in Ainaloa typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Ainaloa, ~29% vote Democratic, ~26% Republican, and ~45% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Ainaloa compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Ainaloa is the least Democratic-leaning.
Ainaloa runs about 20 points more Republican than Hawaii as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Ainaloa. The north side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+11) and the southwest side is the least Democratic-leaning (Even), a spread of about 11 points.
Why Ainaloa leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Ainaloa. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with low colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Ainaloa, HI sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in Ainaloa looks the way it does
Areas with high food insecurity turn out at lower rates. About 29% of adults in Ainaloa report food insecurity, about 13 points above the U.S. average of 16%. High-crime urban areas turn out at lower rates, and Ainaloa sits in the top 15% on a violent-crime measure. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Keaau, HI D+12
- Hawaiian Paradise Park, HI D+13
- Nanawale Estates, HI D+22
- Hawaiian Beaches, HI D+18
- Kurtistown, HI D+18
- Pahoa, HI D+27
- Mountain View, HI D+20
- Opihikao, HI D+21
- Kalapana, HI D+20
- Fern Forest, HI D+28
Cities with Similar Populations
- Swanzey, NH R+16
- Wakulla, FL R+24
- Tazewell, VA R+54
- Lafayette, NJ R+27
- Sour Lake, TX R+74
- Gobles, MI R+29
- North Tazewell, VA R+59
- Orange Grove, TX R+54
- Cream Ridge, NJ R+33
- Dresden, TN R+67
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Hawaii Office of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Some land-use inputs for Hawaii, including walkability and the environmental-justice index, are estimated rather than measured, so the figures here carry added uncertainty. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.