Arnold City leans Republican by roughly 24 points: about 38% of voters vote Democratic and 62% Republican.
About 75% of adults in Arnold City typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Arnold City, ~28% vote Democratic, ~47% Republican, and ~25% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Arnold City compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Arnold City leans more Republican than 86 of 254 neighbors.
Arnold City runs about 23 points more Republican than Pennsylvania as a whole.
Why Arnold City leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Arnold City, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Arnold City votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 43%, modestly above the Pennsylvania average of 33%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. Low college attainment predicts Republican voting, and Arnold City sits in the bottom quarter (about 10%, below 92% of cities).
High-school completion and voter turnout
Places with high-school-completion-heavy adults tend to turn out at a higher rate; Arnold City, PA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Arnold City looks the way it does
Turnout in Arnold City sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Lynnwood-Pricedale, PA R+28
- Wickhaven, PA R+34
- Dunlevy, PA R+36
- Pricedale, PA R+27
- Fayette City, PA R+41
- North Belle Vernon, PA R+20
- Belle Vernon, PA R+30
- Allenport, PA R+32
- Lowber, PA R+41
Cities with Similar Populations
- Zetto, GA D+9
- Patty, TN R+71
- Tussy, OK R+72
- Enterline, PA R+55
- Douglass, SC D+38
- Rowell, SC R+32
- Farmersville, IN R+52
- Rosewood, TX R+77
- Yantisville, IL R+65
- Yankeetown, TN R+72
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Pennsylvania Department of State, Bureau of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.