Arvonia, VA Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Arvonia

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Arvonia leans slightly Republican by roughly 14 points: about 43% of voters vote Democratic and 57% Republican.

 

About 58% of adults in Arvonia typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Arvonia, ~25% vote Democratic, ~33% Republican, and ~42% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Arvonia compares

Among cities within 25 miles, Arvonia leans more Republican than 14 of 69 neighbors.

Arvonia runs about 19 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while Arvonia is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.

Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Arvonia. The west side is the most Republican-leaning (R+26) and the east side is the least Republican-leaning (R+9), a spread of about 16 points.

Why Arvonia leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Arvonia, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Car-dependent areas vote Republican. About 88% of residents in Arvonia drive to work alone, about 15 points above the U.S. average of 74%. Low college attainment predicts Republican voting, and Arvonia sits in the bottom quarter (about 15%, below 78% of cities). Arvonia runs against the grain of Virginia, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.

Paved land cover and Republican lean

Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; Arvonia, VA sits below the national average on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.

Why turnout in Arvonia looks the way it does

Renters vote less often than owners. About 30% of households in Arvonia rent, about 5 points above the U.S. average of 25%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 20% of adults in Arvonia report food insecurity, above 81% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.