Ashtabula leans slightly Republican by roughly 12 points: about 44% of voters vote Democratic and 56% Republican.
About 63% of adults in Ashtabula typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Ashtabula, ~28% vote Democratic, ~35% Republican, and ~37% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Ashtabula compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Ashtabula leans more Republican than 2 of 61 neighbors.
Politically, Ashtabula sits close to the rest of Ohio.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Ashtabula. The southeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+28) and the northwest side is the least Republican-leaning (R+7), a spread of about 21 points.
Why Ashtabula leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Ashtabula, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Ashtabula votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 67%, far above the Ohio average of 34%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Ashtabula, OH sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Ashtabula looks the way it does
Turnout in Ashtabula sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Edgewood, OH R+22
- Plymouth Center, OH R+45
- Saybrook, OH R+29
- Geneva-on-the-Lake, OH R+36
- Kingsville, OH R+42
- Austinburg, OH R+41
- North Kingsville, OH R+30
- Geneva, OH R+30
- Mechanicsville, OH R+38
- Jefferson, OH R+44
Cities with Similar Populations
- Seal Beach, CA D+4
- Clarksburg, MD D+39
- Mount Holly, NJ D+23
- Shirley, NY R+19
- White Bear Lake, MN D+20
- Calabasas, CA D+14
- Allison Park, PA Even
- Milford Mill, MD D+81
- Grayson, GA D+27
- New Albany, OH D+11
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Ohio Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.