White Bear Lake, MN Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in White Bear Lake

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

White Bear Lake leans Democratic by roughly 20 points: about 60% of voters vote Democratic and 40% Republican.

 

About 90% of adults in White Bear Lake typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in White Bear Lake, ~54% vote Democratic, ~36% Republican, and ~10% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How White Bear Lake compares

Among cities within 25 miles, White Bear Lake leans more Democratic than 67 of 106 neighbors.

White Bear Lake runs about 16 points more Democratic than Minnesota as a whole.

Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within White Bear Lake. The northeast side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+27) and the northwest side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+17), a spread of about 10 points.

Why White Bear Lake leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for White Bear Lake, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Dense areas vote Democratic. About 91% of residents in White Bear Lake live in densely developed areas, about 54 points above the U.S. average of 36%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and White Bear Lake sits in the top quarter (about 42%, above 89% of cities). A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 31% of adults in White Bear Lake have never been married, above 77% of cities.

Population density and Democratic lean

Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; White Bear Lake, MN sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.

Why turnout in White Bear Lake looks the way it does

Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. White Bear Lake is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 71%, about 11 points above the U.S. average of 60%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 96% of adults in White Bear Lake have completed high school, above 84% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Minnesota Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.