Aurora leans Democratic by roughly 30 points: about 65% of voters vote Democratic and 35% Republican.
About 55% of adults in Aurora typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Aurora, ~36% vote Democratic, ~19% Republican, and ~45% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Aurora compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Aurora leans more Democratic than 116 of 126 neighbors.
Aurora runs about 18 points more Democratic than Illinois as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Aurora. The east side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+33) and the northeast side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+21), a spread of about 12 points.
Why Aurora leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Aurora, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 93% of residents in Aurora live in densely developed areas, about 57 points above the U.S. average of 36%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and Aurora sits in the top quarter (about 35%, above 82% of cities). A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 38% of adults in Aurora have never been married, above 92% of cities.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Aurora, IL sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Aurora looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Aurora is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 33% of households in Aurora rent, above 88% of cities. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 21% of adults in Aurora report food insecurity, above 83% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Eola, IL D+29
- Boulder Hill, IL D+7
- North Aurora, IL D+10
- Montgomery, IL D+14
- Oswego, IL D+8
- Batavia, IL D+15
- Naperville, IL D+21
- Warrenville, IL D+14
- Sugar Grove, IL R+10
- Mooseheart, IL D+7
Cities with Similar Populations
- Tempe, AZ D+27
- Newport News, VA D+39
- Salinas, CA D+29
- Edmond, OK R+13
- Columbus, GA D+31
- Palmdale, CA D+14
- Escondido, CA D+8
- Alafaya, FL D+4
- Reading, PA D+12
- Evansville, IN R+9
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Illinois State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.