Tempe, AZ Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Tempe

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Tempe leans Democratic by roughly 26 points: about 63% of voters vote Democratic and 37% Republican.

 

About 55% of adults in Tempe typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Tempe, ~35% vote Democratic, ~20% Republican, and ~45% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Tempe compares

Among cities within 25 miles, Tempe leans more Democratic than 18 of 31 neighbors.

Tempe runs about 32 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole. Arizona leans Republican overall, while Tempe is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.

Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Tempe. The north side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+38) and the south side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+11), a spread of about 27 points.

Why Tempe leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Tempe, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Dense areas vote Democratic. About 99% of residents in Tempe live in densely developed areas, about 62 points above the U.S. average of 36%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and Tempe sits in the top quarter (about 51%, above 94% of cities). A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 54% of adults in Tempe have never been married, in the top fraction of cities.

Population density and Democratic lean

Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Tempe, AZ sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.

Why turnout in Tempe looks the way it does

Renters vote less often than owners. About 55% of households in Tempe rent, about 30 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout, and about 4% of homes in Tempe have more than one occupant per room, above 85% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

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Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.