Alafaya, FL Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Alafaya

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Alafaya is a true toss-up. About 52% of voters here vote Democratic and 48% Republican.

 

About 63% of adults in Alafaya typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Alafaya, ~33% vote Democratic, ~30% Republican, and ~37% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Alafaya compares

Among cities within 25 miles, Alafaya leans more Democratic than 36 of 56 neighbors.

Alafaya runs about 17 points more Democratic than Florida as a whole. Florida leans Republican overall, while Alafaya is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.

Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Alafaya. The northwest side runs the most Democratic (D+11) and the northeast side runs the most Republican (Even), a spread of about 11 points.

Why Alafaya leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Alafaya, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Alafaya votes against the grain of Florida. Florida leans Republican overall, while Alafaya runs about 17 points more Democratic.

Paved land cover and Democratic lean

Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; Alafaya, FL sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.

Why turnout in Alafaya looks the way it does

Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Alafaya is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

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Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.