Bakersfield is a Republican stronghold. About 14% of voters here vote Democratic and 86% Republican.
About 71% of adults in Bakersfield typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Bakersfield, ~10% vote Democratic, ~61% Republican, and ~29% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Bakersfield compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Bakersfield leans more Republican than 49 of 55 neighbors.
Bakersfield runs about 53 points more Republican than Missouri as a whole.
Why Bakersfield leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Bakersfield, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 5% of residents in Bakersfield live in densely developed areas, about 17 points below the Missouri average of 22%. A high white share with below-average college attainment predicts Republican voting, and Bakersfield fits that profile on both counts.
Walkability and Republican lean
Places with a low walkability score tend to lean Republican; Bakersfield, MO sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Bakersfield looks the way it does
Turnout in Bakersfield sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Udall, MO R+67
- Leota, MO R+74
- Caulfield, MO R+72
- Elijah, MO R+67
- Gepp, AR R+66
- Gamaliel, AR R+57
- Moody, MO R+73
- Tecumseh, MO R+67
- Henderson, AR R+56
- Howards Ridge, MO R+67
Cities with Similar Populations
- Borth, WI R+44
- Holland, VT R+31
- Brownsville, IN R+65
- Caneadea, NY R+42
- Tusayan, AZ R+29
- Mineral, WA R+35
- Laclede, MO R+63
- High Bridge, NH R+12
- Minnekahta, SD R+53
- Washington Park, NC R+30
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Missouri Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.