Elm Grove is a Republican stronghold. About 18% of voters here vote Democratic and 82% Republican.
About 51% of adults in Elm Grove typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Elm Grove, ~9% vote Democratic, ~42% Republican, and ~49% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Elm Grove compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Elm Grove leans more Republican than 33 of 68 neighbors.
Elm Grove runs about 34 points more Republican than Arkansas as a whole.
Why Elm Grove leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Elm Grove, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with low college attainment vote Republican. About 8% of adults in Elm Grove hold a bachelor's degree, about 9 points below the Arkansas average of 18%.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Elm Grove, AR sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Elm Grove looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Elm Grove is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 46%, about 5 points below the Arkansas average of 51%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 47% of households in Elm Grove rent, compared to around 31% in nearby cities. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 24% of adults in Elm Grove report food insecurity, above 90% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Trumann, AR R+51
- Stacy, AR R+54
- Lunsford, AR R+68
- Tulot, AR R+56
- Bay, AR R+64
- Maple Grove, AR R+62
- Black Oak, AR R+65
- Shady Grove, AR R+74
- Hergett, AR R+59
- Promised Land, AR R+72
Cities with Similar Populations
- Sawkill, NY R+3
- Watervale, MI R+3
- Maple Point, IL R+62
- Schenley, PA R+54
- Darlington Heights, VA R+17
- St. George, WV R+59
- Vernon, DE R+54
- Branscomb, CA D+36
- Meador, WV R+73
- Heshbon, PA R+60
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arkansas Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.