Bernardo leans Republican by roughly 20 points: about 40% of voters vote Democratic and 60% Republican.
About 68% of adults in Bernardo typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Bernardo, ~27% vote Democratic, ~41% Republican, and ~32% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Bernardo compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Bernardo leans more Republican than 9 of 15 neighbors.
Bernardo runs about 25 points more Republican than New Mexico as a whole. New Mexico leans Democratic overall, while Bernardo is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Bernardo. The south side is the most Republican-leaning (R+27) and the east side is the least Republican-leaning (R+4), a spread of about 23 points.
Why Bernardo leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Bernardo, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 3% of residents in Bernardo live in densely developed areas, about 14 points below the New Mexico average of 18%. Bernardo runs against the grain of New Mexico, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
High-school completion, developed land, and voter turnout
Places that combine high-school-completion-heavy adults and a rural land-use pattern tend to turn out at a higher rate, as Bernardo, NM does.
Why turnout in Bernardo looks the way it does
Areas with high high-school completion turn out at higher rates. About 99% of adults in Bernardo have completed high school, about 12 points above the New Mexico average of 87%. Limited routine healthcare access lines up with lower turnout, and Bernardo sits in the bottom quarter on routine-care measures. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Sabinal, NM R+4
- La Joya, NM R+18
- Veguita, NM R+18
- Bosque, NM R+16
- Casa Colorada, NM R+25
- Jarales, NM R+22
- San Acacia, NM R+24
- Belen, NM R+14
- Polvadera, NM R+19
- La Constancia, NM R+19
Cities with Similar Populations
- Weathers, AR R+64
- Craigs, NY R+42
- Colonial Acres, MD R+11
- Denhoff, ND R+69
- Elmdale, KS R+56
- Waugh, VA R+40
- East View, PA R+53
- Edmond, KS R+82
- Dresden, KS R+73
- Amigo, WV R+69
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New Mexico Secretary of State, Bureau of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.