La Joya leans Republican by roughly 18 points: about 41% of voters vote Democratic and 59% Republican.
About 36% of adults in La Joya typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in La Joya, ~15% vote Democratic, ~21% Republican, and ~64% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How La Joya compares
Among cities within 25 miles, La Joya leans more Republican than 6 of 13 neighbors.
La Joya runs about 24 points more Republican than New Mexico as a whole. New Mexico leans Democratic overall, while La Joya is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why La Joya leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for La Joya, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
La Joya votes against the grain of New Mexico. New Mexico leans Democratic overall, while La Joya runs about 24 points more Republican. Low college attainment predicts Republican voting, and La Joya sits in the bottom quarter (about 15%, below 76% of cities).
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; La Joya, NM sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in La Joya looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. La Joya is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 50%, about 8 points below the New Mexico average of 58%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 27% of adults in La Joya report food insecurity, above 93% of cities. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 85% of adults in La Joya have completed high school, below 79% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Bernardo, NM R+19
- Sabinal, NM R+4
- Veguita, NM R+18
- San Acacia, NM R+24
- Bosque, NM R+16
- Polvadera, NM R+19
- Casa Colorada, NM R+25
- Lemitar, NM R+19
- Jarales, NM R+22
- Belen, NM R+14
Cities with Similar Populations
- Mist, OR R+36
- Olema, CA D+43
- Matthew, KY R+65
- Kline, WV R+60
- Wecota, SD R+68
- Indian Neck, VA R+8
- Lillis, KS R+60
- Orient, SD R+66
- Upton, IN R+53
- Upperville, NY R+49
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New Mexico Secretary of State, Bureau of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.