Big Arm leans Republican by roughly 28 points: about 36% of voters vote Democratic and 64% Republican.
About 74% of adults in Big Arm typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Big Arm, ~27% vote Democratic, ~47% Republican, and ~26% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Big Arm compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Big Arm leans more Republican than 11 of 17 neighbors.
Big Arm runs about 9 points more Republican than Montana as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Big Arm. The southeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+37) and the east side is the least Republican-leaning (R+26), a spread of about 12 points.
Why Big Arm leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Big Arm. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; Big Arm, MT sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Big Arm looks the way it does
Turnout in Big Arm sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Elmo, MT R+26
- Dayton, MT R+26
- Polson, MT R+20
- Proctor, MT R+21
- Rollins, MT R+19
- Bear Dance, MT R+16
- Pablo, MT R+22
- Lakeside, MT R+26
- Niarada, MT R+32
- Lonepine, MT R+42
Cities with Similar Populations
- Beverly Shores, IN R+8
- Vernalis, CA R+31
- Primm, NV R+11
- Lane, OK R+75
- Reece City, AL R+70
- Walcott, ND R+44
- Cabell, KY R+77
- Walker, MO R+73
- Flemington, WV R+59
- Paxton, NE R+76
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Montana Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.