Vernalis leans heavily Republican by roughly 32 points: about 34% of voters vote Democratic and 66% Republican.
About 37% of adults in Vernalis typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Vernalis, ~13% vote Democratic, ~24% Republican, and ~63% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Vernalis compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Vernalis leans more Republican than 20 of 29 neighbors.
Vernalis runs about 51 points more Republican than California as a whole. California leans Democratic overall, while Vernalis is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why Vernalis leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Vernalis, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Vernalis votes against the grain of California. California leans Democratic overall, while Vernalis runs about 51 points more Republican. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 84% of households in Vernalis are family households, above 96% of cities.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with low colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Vernalis, CA sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in Vernalis looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Vernalis is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 30% of households in Vernalis rent, above 84% of cities. Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout, and about 8% of homes in Vernalis have more than one occupant per room, above 94% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Westley, CA R+31
- Banta, CA R+12
- Tracy, CA D+4
- Ripon, CA R+35
- Manteca, CA R+8
- Lathrop, CA D+3
- Salida, CA R+17
- Patterson, CA D+3
- Mountain House, CA D+12
Cities with Similar Populations
- Beverly Shores, IN R+8
- Big Arm, MT R+29
- Port Hudson, LA R+31
- Salem, TN R+53
- Elwood, TX R+71
- Lane, OK R+75
- Smyrna, WA R+57
- Stonelick, OH R+55
- Flemington, WV R+59
- Oakman, OK R+48
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.