Elmo leans Republican by roughly 26 points: about 37% of voters vote Democratic and 63% Republican.
About 71% of adults in Elmo typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Elmo, ~26% vote Democratic, ~45% Republican, and ~29% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Elmo compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Elmo leans more Republican than 9 of 17 neighbors.
Elmo runs about 6 points more Republican than Montana as a whole.
Why Elmo leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Elmo. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Paved land cover and Republican lean
Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; Elmo, MT sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in Elmo looks the way it does
Turnout in Elmo sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Big Arm, MT R+29
- Dayton, MT R+26
- Proctor, MT R+21
- Rollins, MT R+19
- Polson, MT R+20
- Niarada, MT R+32
- Lakeside, MT R+26
- Bear Dance, MT R+16
- Lonepine, MT R+42
- Pablo, MT R+22
Cities with Similar Populations
- Thedford, NE R+82
- Midland, AR R+65
- Rockwood, WI R+41
- Teasdale, MS R+68
- Williamson Crossroads, NC R+31
- Riverton, LA R+57
- Woods, KS R+80
- Woodman, WI R+42
- Holiday Shores, IL R+35
- Westwood, IN R+52
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Montana Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.