Bear Dance leans Republican by roughly 16 points: about 42% of voters vote Democratic and 58% Republican.
About 83% of adults in Bear Dance typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Bear Dance, ~35% vote Democratic, ~48% Republican, and ~17% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Bear Dance compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Bear Dance is the least Republican-leaning.
Bear Dance runs about 4 points more Democratic than Montana as a whole.
Why Bear Dance leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Bear Dance, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 2% of residents in Bear Dance live in densely developed areas, about 11 points below the Montana average of 13%.
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; Bear Dance, MT sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Bear Dance looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Bear Dance is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 66%, about 6 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 94% of households in Bear Dance own their home, about 19 points above the U.S. average of 75%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 97% of adults in Bear Dance have completed high school, above 89% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Rollins, MT R+19
- Woods Bay, MT R+24
- Swan Lake, MT R+35
- Dayton, MT R+26
- Bigfork, MT R+25
- Lakeside, MT R+26
- Polson, MT R+20
- Big Arm, MT R+29
- Proctor, MT R+21
- Elmo, MT R+26
Cities with Similar Populations
- Low Mountain, AZ D+51
- Lowground, MO R+72
- Homer, KY R+66
- Farelly Lake, AR R+15
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Montana Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.