Box Elder is a Democratic stronghold. About 80% of voters here vote Democratic and 20% Republican.
About 60% of adults in Box Elder typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Box Elder, ~48% vote Democratic, ~12% Republican, and ~40% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Box Elder compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Box Elder leans more Democratic than 6 of 10 neighbors.
Box Elder runs about 81 points more Democratic than Montana as a whole. Montana leans Republican overall, while Box Elder is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Box Elder. The east side runs the most Democratic (D+66) and the west side runs the most Republican (R+54), a spread of about 120 points.
Why Box Elder leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Box Elder, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Box Elder votes against the grain of Montana. Montana leans Republican overall, while Box Elder runs about 81 points more Democratic. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 60% of adults in Box Elder have never been married, in the top fraction of cities.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; Box Elder, MT sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Box Elder looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Box Elder is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 49%, about 13 points below the Montana average of 62%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 66% of households in Box Elder rent, compared to around 44% in nearby cities. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 30% of adults in Box Elder report food insecurity, above 95% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Sangrey, MT D+72
- Azure, MT D+72
- St. Pierre, MT D+72
- Rocky Boy, MT D+23
- Parker School, MT D+72
- Big Sandy, MT R+23
- Kremlin, MT R+29
- Kenilworth, MT R+53
- Warrick, MT R+37
- Havre, MT R+38
Cities with Similar Populations
- Hamlin, TX R+61
- Wyoming, DE D+7
- Eagle Springs, NC R+29
- Martin, KY R+59
- Hemby Bridge, NC R+18
- Coosada, AL R+18
- Gates Mills, OH D+3
- Barksdale Afb, LA R+5
- Hubbard, TX R+53
- Etna Green, IN R+65
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Montana Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.