Breaks is a Republican stronghold. About 15% of voters here vote Democratic and 85% Republican.
About 57% of adults in Breaks typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Breaks, ~9% vote Democratic, ~48% Republican, and ~43% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Breaks compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Breaks leans more Republican than 81 of 146 neighbors.
Breaks runs about 75 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while Breaks is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why Breaks leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Breaks, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 5% of residents in Breaks live in densely developed areas, about 21 points below the Virginia average of 26%. A high white share with below-average college attainment predicts Republican voting, and Breaks fits that profile on both counts. Breaks runs against the grain of Virginia, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Developed land and Republican lean
Places with a rural land-use pattern tend to lean Republican; Breaks, VA sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Developed land does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Breaks looks the way it does
High-crime urban areas turn out at lower rates, mostly because the housing stress common in those areas makes voting harder. Breaks sits in the top 15% nationally on a violent-crime measure. See CrimeGrade for more details. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 78% of adults in Breaks have completed high school, below 94% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Gillespie, VA R+69
- Lick Creek, KY R+71
- Mouthcard, KY R+74
- Conaway, VA R+67
- Vicey, VA R+69
- Dunleary, KY R+64
- Belcher, KY R+64
- Haysi, VA R+67
- Harman Junction, VA R+63
Cities with Similar Populations
- Roans Prairie, TX R+72
- Paynesville, MI R+24
- Abie, NE R+63
- Yost, OH R+60
- Lowery, AL R+90
- Horse Creek, CA R+27
- Wilsontown, WV R+68
- Cominto, AR R+59
- Wadesville, VA R+32
- Lamont, WA R+75
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.