Bull Shoals leans heavily Republican by roughly 44 points: about 28% of voters vote Democratic and 72% Republican.
About 78% of adults in Bull Shoals typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Bull Shoals, ~22% vote Democratic, ~56% Republican, and ~22% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Bull Shoals compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Bull Shoals is the least Republican-leaning.
Bull Shoals runs about 13 points more Republican than Arkansas as a whole.
Why Bull Shoals leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Bull Shoals, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Bull Shoals votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 21%, modestly above the Arkansas average of 13%). Here an older population outweighs the Democratic lean that density usually predicts.
Cholesterol-screening access and voter turnout
Places with high cholesterol-screening access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Bull Shoals, AR sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Cholesterol screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in Bull Shoals looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Bull Shoals is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 56%, below 73% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Lakeview, AR R+50
- Oakland, AR R+45
- Midway, AR R+58
- Flippin, AR R+60
- Cotter, AR R+58
- Gassville, AR R+62
- Three Brothers, AR R+59
- Summit, AR R+61
- Pontiac, MO R+64
- Lakeway, AR R+53
Cities with Similar Populations
- Bunn, NC R+4
- Edgemoor, SC R+53
- Ottertail, MN R+42
- Avilla, AR R+63
- Concho, AZ R+48
- Deming, WA R+3
- Wellington, TX R+50
- Badin, NC R+18
- Wappapello, MO R+67
- Coltman, ID R+71
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arkansas Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.