Buncombe County leans Democratic by roughly 18 points: about 59% of voters vote Democratic and 41% Republican.
About 83% of adults in Buncombe County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Buncombe County, ~49% vote Democratic, ~34% Republican, and ~17% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Buncombe County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Buncombe County is the most Democratic-leaning.
Buncombe County runs about 21 points more Democratic than North Carolina as a whole. North Carolina leans Republican overall, while Buncombe County is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Buncombe County. The south side runs the most Democratic (D+25) and the northwest side runs the most Republican (R+12), a spread of about 38 points.
Why Buncombe County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Buncombe County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 46% of adults in Buncombe County hold a bachelor's degree, about 17 points above the U.S. average of 28%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 36% of adults in Buncombe County have never been married, above 86% of counties. Buncombe County runs against the grain of North Carolina, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; Buncombe County, NC sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Buncombe County looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Buncombe County is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 66%, about 6 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Henderson County, NC R+16
- Madison County, NC R+34
- Haywood County, NC R+33
- Yancey County, NC R+43
- Transylvania County, NC R+17
- McDowell County, NC R+50
- Polk County, NC R+31
- Mitchell County, NC R+56
- Unicoi County, TN R+57
- Rutherford County, NC R+46
Counties with Similar Populations
- Brown County, WI R+4
- Santa Cruz County, CA D+49
- Erie County, PA Even
- Washington County, MN D+10
- Frederick County, MD D+10
- Webb County, TX Even
- Cherokee County, GA R+33
- St. Joseph County, IN D+9
- Madison County, IL R+11
- St. Johns County, FL R+26
All Local Stats
Home Services
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from North Carolina State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.