Frederick County leans slightly Democratic by roughly 10 points: about 55% of voters vote Democratic and 45% Republican.
About 78% of adults in Frederick County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Frederick County, ~43% vote Democratic, ~35% Republican, and ~22% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Frederick County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Frederick County leans more Democratic than 11 of 27 neighbors.
Frederick County runs about 19 points more Republican than Maryland as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Frederick County. The west side runs the most Democratic (D+22) and the northeast side runs the most Republican (R+19), a spread of about 41 points.
Why Frederick County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Frederick County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 46% of adults in Frederick County hold a bachelor's degree, about 17 points above the U.S. average of 28%. Dense areas vote Democratic, and Frederick County sits in the top fifth on density (about 57%, above 83% of counties).
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Frederick County, MD sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Frederick County looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Frederick County is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 67%, about 7 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Washington County, MD R+18
- Carroll County, MD R+24
- Jefferson County, WV R+22
- Montgomery County, MD D+52
- Loudoun County, VA D+18
- Berkeley County, WV R+33
- Adams County, PA R+35
- Howard County, MD D+40
- Franklin County, PA R+41
- Clarke County, VA R+18
Counties with Similar Populations
- Erie County, PA Even
- Santa Cruz County, CA D+49
- St. Joseph County, IN D+9
- St. Johns County, FL R+26
- Buncombe County, NC D+18
- Atlantic County, NJ D+4
- Brown County, WI R+4
- Kitsap County, WA D+18
- Washington County, MN D+10
- Webb County, TX Even
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Maryland State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.