Erie County is a true toss-up. About 50% of voters here vote Democratic and 50% Republican.
About 76% of adults in Erie County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Erie County, ~38% vote Democratic, ~38% Republican, and ~24% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Erie County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Erie County sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 5 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 0 leaning the other way.
Politically, Erie County sits close to the rest of Pennsylvania.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Erie County. The north side runs the most Democratic (D+33) and the southeast side runs the most Republican (R+36), a spread of about 69 points.
Why Erie County leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in Erie County. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Erie County, PA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in Erie County looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Erie County is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 62%, above 63% of counties. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Crawford County, PA R+39
- Ashtabula County, OH R+32
- Chautauqua County, NY R+16
- Warren County, PA R+41
- Venango County, PA R+42
- Mercer County, PA R+27
- Forest County, PA R+24
- Trumbull County, OH R+17
- Lake County, OH R+11
- Clarion County, PA R+50
Counties with Similar Populations
- Santa Cruz County, CA D+49
- Frederick County, MD D+10
- Buncombe County, NC D+18
- St. Joseph County, IN D+9
- Brown County, WI R+4
- St. Johns County, FL R+26
- Washington County, MN D+10
- Atlantic County, NJ D+4
- Webb County, TX Even
- Cherokee County, GA R+33
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Pennsylvania Department of State, Bureau of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.