Carlisle leans Republican by roughly 22 points: about 39% of voters vote Democratic and 61% Republican.
About 49% of adults in Carlisle typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Carlisle, ~19% vote Democratic, ~30% Republican, and ~51% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Carlisle compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Carlisle is the least Republican-leaning.
Politically, Carlisle sits close to the rest of Indiana.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Carlisle. The northeast side is the most split-leaning (R+61) and the north side is the least split-leaning (Even), a spread of about 60 points.
Why Carlisle leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Carlisle, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with low college attainment vote Republican. About 7% of adults in Carlisle hold a bachelor's degree, about 16 points below the Indiana average of 22%. Dense places usually vote Democratic, but Carlisle runs against that pattern.
Never-married share, developed land, and voter turnout
Places that combine a never-married-heavy adult population and a heavily developed built environment tend to turn out at a lower rate, as Carlisle, IN does.
Why turnout in Carlisle looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. Carlisle is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 23% of adults in Carlisle report food insecurity, above 87% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Paxton, IN R+61
- New Lebanon, IN R+54
- Oaktown, IN R+59
- Pleasantville, IN R+62
- Freelandville, IN R+61
- Sullivan, IN R+48
- Gambill, IN R+62
- Graysville, IN R+55
- Dugger, IN R+62
Cities with Similar Populations
- East Rockingham, NC R+21
- Climax, NC R+56
- Rosepine, LA R+75
- Lovell, WY R+70
- Hamilton, IL R+32
- Verona, MS D+51
- Islamorada, FL R+39
- Watkins Glen, NY R+20
- Mescalero, NM D+42
- Mount Oliver, PA D+41
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Indiana Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.