Carmel Valley leans Democratic by roughly 28 points: about 64% of voters vote Democratic and 36% Republican.
About 75% of adults in Carmel Valley typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Carmel Valley, ~48% vote Democratic, ~27% Republican, and ~25% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Carmel Valley compares
Among neighborhoods within 5 miles, Carmel Valley leans more Democratic than 3 of 5 neighbors.
Carmel Valley runs about 9 points more Democratic than California as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within Carmel Valley. The west side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+36) and the east side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+16), a spread of about 20 points.
Why Carmel Valley leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per neighborhood to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Carmel Valley, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 82% of adults in Carmel Valley hold a bachelor's degree, about 54 points above the U.S. average of 28%.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with strong routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Carmel Valley, San Diego, CA sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in Carmel Valley looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Carmel Valley is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 75%, about 15 points above the U.S. average of 60%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 98% of adults in Carmel Valley have completed high school, above 86% of neighborhoods. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Neighborhoods
- North City, San Diego, CA D+24
- Del Mar Heights, Del Mar, CA D+41
- Sorrento Valley, San Diego, CA D+26
- Torrey Pines, San Diego, CA D+55
- Mira Mesa, San Diego, CA D+21
- Rancho Penasquitos, San Diego, CA D+21
- University City, San Diego, CA D+44
- La Jolla Village, La Jolla, CA D+45
- Miramar, San Diego, CA R+20
- Black Mountain Ranch, San Diego, CA D+16
Neighborhoods with Similar Populations
- Richmond, Philadelphia, PA D+24
- Capitol Hill, Washington, DC D+77
- Auburndale, Queens, NY R+2
- Greater Memorial, Houston, TX R+14
- Dyker Heights, Brooklyn, NY R+20
- Woodhaven, Queens, NY D+9
- South Dorchester, Boston, MA D+57
- Carnegie Hill, Manhattan, NY D+60
- Central Escondido, Escondido, CA D+18
- Fenway-Kenmore, Boston, MA D+67
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from California Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.