Carnes is a Republican stronghold. About 24% of voters here vote Democratic and 76% Republican.
About 91% of adults in Carnes typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Carnes, ~22% vote Democratic, ~69% Republican, and ~9% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Carnes compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Carnes leans more Republican than 8 of 38 neighbors.
Carnes runs about 39 points more Republican than Iowa as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Carnes. The southwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+67) and the northwest side is the least Republican-leaning (R+37), a spread of about 30 points.
Why Carnes leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Carnes, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Carnes votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 27%, modestly above the Iowa average of 16%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with high colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Carnes, IA sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in Carnes looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Carnes is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 73%, about 13 points above the U.S. average of 60%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 97% of adults in Carnes have completed high school, above 89% of cities. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Alton, IA R+54
- Orange City, IA R+41
- Granville, IA R+66
- Newkirk, IA R+72
- Maurice, IA R+71
- Seney, IA R+60
- Hospers, IA R+71
- Sioux Center, IA R+47
- Oyens, IA R+59
- Struble, IA R+60
Cities with Similar Populations
- Oklahoma, PA R+31
- Cedar Glen, CA R+32
- Rockport, AR R+54
- Ford, WA D+7
- Cleveland, UT R+76
- Daviston, AL R+77
- Springtown, PA R+36
- Paris, MS R+70
- Fox, OH R+55
- Big Run, PA R+58
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Iowa Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.