Caroline County leans heavily Republican by roughly 34 points: about 33% of voters vote Democratic and 67% Republican.
About 71% of adults in Caroline County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Caroline County, ~23% vote Democratic, ~48% Republican, and ~29% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Caroline County compares
Among counties within 50 miles, Caroline County is the most Republican-leaning.
Caroline County runs about 62 points more Republican than Maryland as a whole. Maryland leans Democratic overall, while Caroline County is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by city within Caroline County. The northeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+49) and the southeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+17), a spread of about 32 points.
Why Caroline County leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Caroline County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Caroline County votes against the grain of Maryland. Maryland leans Democratic overall, while Caroline County runs about 62 points more Republican. Car-dependent areas vote Republican, and about 83% of residents in Caroline County drive to work alone, above 89% of counties.
Developed land and Republican lean
Places with a rural land-use pattern tend to lean Republican; Caroline County, MD sits below the national average on this measure. Developed land does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Caroline County looks the way it does
Turnout in Caroline County sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Counties
- Talbot County, MD Even
- Queen Anne's County, MD R+27
- Kent County, DE D+5
- Dorchester County, MD R+9
- Kent County, MD Even
- Sussex County, DE R+12
- Wicomico County, MD D+6
- Anne Arundel County, MD D+17
- Calvert County, MD R+14
- Worcester County, MD R+12
Counties with Similar Populations
- Morton County, ND R+49
- Bureau County, IL R+27
- Pickens County, GA R+59
- Panola County, MS Even
- Daviess County, IN R+59
- Clinton County, IN R+45
- Accomack County, VA R+16
- Marion County, IA R+34
- Lee County, GA R+38
- Jefferson County, IN R+43
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Maryland State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.