Carrolls leans Republican by roughly 26 points: about 37% of voters vote Democratic and 63% Republican.
About 79% of adults in Carrolls typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Carrolls, ~29% vote Democratic, ~50% Republican, and ~21% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Carrolls compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Carrolls leans more Republican than 15 of 43 neighbors.
Carrolls runs about 44 points more Republican than Washington as a whole. Washington leans Democratic overall, while Carrolls is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why Carrolls leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Carrolls, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Carrolls votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 23%, well below the Washington average of 41%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 82% of households in Carrolls are family households, above 93% of cities. Carrolls runs against the grain of Washington, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Walkability and Republican lean
Places with a low walkability score tend to lean Republican; Carrolls, WA sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in Carrolls looks the way it does
Turnout in Carrolls sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- Rose Valley, WA R+28
- Prescott, OR R+20
- Kalama, WA R+24
- Goble, OR R+29
- Rainier, OR R+25
- Kelso, WA R+18
- West Rainier, OR R+24
- Deer Island, OR R+30
- Longview, WA R+9
- Ostrander, WA R+36
Cities with Similar Populations
- Dell, MT R+61
- Cathay, ND R+64
- Zion, MO R+65
- Spring Lake, MN R+24
- Divot, TX R+29
- Lodoga, CA R+42
- Nahma, MI R+32
- Tippo, MS D+19
- Spanish Fort, TX R+75
- Chincoteague Island, VA R+28
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Washington Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.