Rainier leans Republican by roughly 24 points: about 38% of voters vote Democratic and 62% Republican.
About 81% of adults in Rainier typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Rainier, ~31% vote Democratic, ~50% Republican, and ~19% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How Rainier compares
Among cities within 25 miles, Rainier leans more Republican than 14 of 42 neighbors.
Rainier runs about 39 points more Republican than Oregon as a whole. Oregon leans Democratic overall, while Rainier is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by neighborhood within Rainier. The southeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+29) and the northeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+16), a spread of about 13 points.
Why Rainier leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per city to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Rainier, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rainier votes against the grain of Oregon. Oregon leans Democratic overall, while Rainier runs about 39 points more Republican.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; Rainier, OR sits above the national average on this measure.
Why turnout in Rainier looks the way it does
Turnout in Rainier sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Cities
- West Rainier, OR R+24
- Prescott, OR R+20
- Goble, OR R+29
- Longview, WA R+9
- Carrolls, WA R+26
- Mayger, OR R+32
- Kelso, WA R+18
- Rose Valley, WA R+28
- Deer Island, OR R+30
- Inglis, OR R+27
Cities with Similar Populations
- Concordia, KS R+47
- Alexander, NC R+26
- Cumberland, IN R+6
- Bush, LA R+70
- East Sandwich, MA D+8
- Kalifornsky, AK R+29
- Perryville, MD R+22
- Shallowater, TX R+65
- Coldwater, OH R+69
- Primera, TX R+9
All Local Stats
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Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Oregon Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.