Carver County, MN Political Map | Democrat & Republican Areas in Carver County

By the BestNeighborhood data science team. Last updated May 2026.

Carver County leans slightly Republican by roughly 8 points: about 46% of voters vote Democratic and 54% Republican.

 

About 95% of adults in Carver County typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in Carver County, ~44% vote Democratic, ~51% Republican, and ~5% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.

How Carver County compares

Among counties within 50 miles, Carver County leans more Republican than 7 of 14 neighbors.

Carver County runs about 12 points more Republican than Minnesota as a whole. Minnesota leans Democratic overall, while Carver County is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.

Politics vary noticeably by city within Carver County. The northeast side runs the most Democratic (D+8) and the southwest side runs the most Republican (R+38), a spread of about 45 points.

Why Carver County leans the way it does

This analysis examined 14,881 data points per county to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for Carver County, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.

Carver County votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 57%, far above the Minnesota average of 23%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 75% of households in Carver County are family households, above 95% of counties. Carver County runs against the grain of Minnesota, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.

Cancer-screening access and voter turnout

Places with high colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a higher rate; Carver County, MN sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.

Why turnout in Carver County looks the way it does

Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. Carver County is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 73%, about 13 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 84% of households in Carver County own their home, above 94% of counties. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 97% of adults in Carver County have completed high school, in the top fraction of counties. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.

Sources and methodology

Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Minnesota Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.

Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.

Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.